Tendenza e previsione stagionale per l’estate 2016 in Italia e Europa

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Estate Europa 2016Il WPS, in contro-tendenza allo scenario pronosticato con un anticiclone africano prepotentemente presente sullo scenario europeo e in particolare sul Mediterraneo, vede una situazione meteo-climatica europea che rientra nella normalità del periodo, fatta eccezione per la regione scandinava e baltica.

Da sottolineare la possibilità di vedere un anticiclone presente con maggiore frequenza sull’area nord europea, mentre saranno maggiori le incursioni perturbate sull’area centro-meridionale del continente, guidate da un vortice islandese più intenso del normale, ma decentrato con il suo perno più a sud del normale. Forte instabilità sull’est europeo, area centrale del continente, arco alpino e Europa sud-orientale
Le macro aree dunque risulterebbero divise in questa maniera:

  • Europa settentrionale, Gran Bretagna, paesi Baltici e Russia europea con frequente presenza anticiclonica, precipitazioni sotto media e temperature sopra media, in particolare tra luglio e agosto. Giugno e settembre con meteo clima normale e nella media.
  • Penisola Iberica con anticiclone delle Azzorre presente in maniera convincente, ma intervallato da brevi e veloci incursioni fresche, guidate dal vortice islandese, in particolare sulle zone settentrionali della penisola dove risulteranno sopra media gli apporti precipitativi, ma anche da veloci incursioni dinamiche dell’anticiclone africano. Meteo-clima nella media stagionale per tutto il periodo
  • Centro Europa con meteo-clima segnato spesso dall’instabilità e dalle precipitazioni sopra media e termiche al di sotto della media stagionale (possibili forti temporali); da segnalare il nord della Germania, la Danimarca e il Benelux dove le precipitazioni risulteranno più avare e le temperature più elevate della media, in particolare nel mese di giugno.
  • Europa orientale con termiche lievemente sopra media in giugno, ma sotto media nei mesi di luglio, agosto e settembre e precipitazioni nella norma o lievemente sotto media a giugno, sopra media a luglio, agosto e settembre (possibili forti temporali).
  • Penisola balcanica con precipitazioni sopra media e termiche sotto media, meteo-clima instabile(possibili forti temporali).
  • Alpi e penisola italiana con temperature nella media per tutto il periodo estivo con precipitazioni sopra media, in particolare al centro-nord della penisola e lungo l’arco alpino. Assenza o quasi di incursione anticicloniche africane se non limitate a brevissimi periodi sull’area meridionale della penisola, ma sostanzialmente in presenza di un anticiclone delle Azzorre allungato sul Mediterraneo.

Estate Europa 2016

Un cordiale saluto

Luca Romaldini

42 thoughts on “Tendenza e previsione stagionale per l’estate 2016 in Italia e Europa

  1. ciao Luca ,
    previsione giustamente illogica … ma corretta.
    A OGGI Io ritengo che ogni algoritmo sia una semplice via peri poter controllare (inteso come via per capire e quindi prevenire) le ” reazioni ai diversi mutamenti ” al solo fine di prevederrne gli effetti e trarre i massimi vantaggi dalla situazione conseguente.

    mi correggo ….. l’uso di ogni algoritmo

    cordiale stima


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